Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.123444 25.379349 30.057161 35.552079 41.800843 48.656689 56.717291
2025-08-31 14.136617 19.493565 25.997169 34.350484 44.663267 56.844180 72.174980
2025-09-07 10.920066 16.794397 24.493639 35.054143 48.870026 66.027737 88.611785
2025-09-14 8.320029 14.176513 22.410176 34.378066 50.830300 72.131245 101.206664
2025-09-21 6.873681 12.813821 21.682972 35.210587 54.566219 80.464120 116.823466
2025-09-28 5.179126 10.679953 19.453643 33.539243 54.547513 83.611925 125.580799
2025-10-05 4.469386 9.993682 19.273467 34.765788 58.598999 92.388926 142.182350
2025-10-12 3.823000 9.271621 18.902913 35.597319 62.040150 100.391507 157.969115
2025-10-19 3.262812 8.583037 18.469585 36.234381 65.156044 107.996629 173.423221
2025-10-26 2.835718 8.062332 18.241148 37.144860 68.692458 116.308636 190.133273
2025-11-02 2.316904 7.217062 17.289090 36.702081 69.999432 121.298147 202.140081
2025-11-09 1.953467 6.631147 16.735578 36.872846 72.260164 127.765065 216.479701
2025-11-16 1.586109 5.965692 15.990063 36.742525 74.214410 134.166022 231.482499
2025-11-23 1.201641 5.124034 14.741685 35.548487 74.294496 137.676692 242.342551
2025-11-30 1.015446 4.780748 14.513509 36.273896 77.723281 146.628615 261.826770
2025-12-07 0.785294 4.200343 13.630561 35.579682 78.541329 151.340076 274.827901
2025-12-14 0.669507 3.959544 13.515256 36.434769 82.202050 160.841614 295.642687
2025-12-21 0.476451 3.319340 12.260304 34.718026 80.938340 162.023350 303.190375
2025-12-28 0.417753 3.203188 12.366820 35.977936 85.376613 173.011295 326.850667
2026-01-04 0.355453 3.035818 12.299469 36.831938 89.062763 182.821334 348.849358
2026-01-11 0.297654 2.853996 12.154755 37.486136 92.378503 192.087222 370.190466
2026-01-18 0.254425 2.721790 12.132653 38.420992 96.291504 202.516768 393.716114
2026-01-25 0.193892 2.433355 11.561567 37.966376 97.353763 207.916666 408.977150